I just finished The Fourth Turning is Here by Neil Howe, which several people have recommended. I skimmed the previous seminal work Generations by Strauss and Howe which set forth the basic premises that this book is based on several years ago. 

In a nutshell, the authors state that history repeats itself or maybe something a little closer to Mark Twain’s dictum “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” This rhythm is marked by an age or saecula, which is in essence a lifetime of an individual (80-100 years). This saecula is then further divided into generations of approx. 20-25 years. We have become familiar with a number of these generations in recent years by names such as “Baby Boomers”, “Gen-X” “Millennials” etc. The authors identify several archetypes of the four generations that make up a saecula “Prophets” (our Baby Boomers), “Nomads” (Gen X, “Heroes” (The GI, Greatest Gen, and Millennials), and “Artists” (The Silent Gen and or Gen Z). The book is an analysis essentially of how these four archetypes have responded to the cyclical nature of history – as history cycles through a crisis, is reconstituted into a stronger civic society, how an awakening disrupts this, and then slowly unravels into the next crisis. Admittedly the authors present a very US/Anglo-centric vision – but it is interesting to consider. Many have said that the previous Strauss-Howe books predicted 9/11, the Housing Crisis, and Covid… perhaps. The big takeaway from this book is that the US is facing a generational crisis coming in the next 5 years or so, which would either manifest as a civil war or as a great nation’s war.

The analysis is interesting, but I also felt similar to reading personality types. Interesting to consider, not always accurate, but maybe I am reflecting my Nomad archetype in saying that.

The following chart is from a more in-depth description of the theory here: 

The Cyclical Nature of History | The Art of Manliness

There are some interesting observations in relationship to non-profit organizational leadership of which I have been part of not a few and combining this with a few personal observations. Interestingly, the authors note the lack of civic leaders in the Nomad generations. This has been true also in organizational leadership. I think we are seeing a transfer of leadership in the last few years, unlike anything I have seen. Many leaders of these orgs were early phase boomers and it is literally sickness and death that has meant they have to pass on leadership to the next generation.

There is something in all of us that we gain identity from what we do. These task contributions justify the titles of an individual, and if an individual does not have a title, they are discarded as not being important. The challenge is that as people get older, the successful tasks that they completed in their earlier life that gained them notoriety and position, can be done more effectively by younger people, but if they give up these tasks to younger people, they will be discarded. And when people are not contributing effectively, they often quickly decline in health. 

There is an interesting passage in Numbers 8 related to the Levitical work of the Tabernacle

23 The Lord said to Moses, 24 “This applies to the Levites: Men twenty-five years old or more shall come to take part in the work at the tent of meeting, 25 but at the age of fifty, they must retire from their regular service and work no longer. 26 They may assist their brothers in performing their duties at the tent of meeting, but they themselves must not do the work. This, then, is how you are to assign the responsibilities of the Levites.”

The main service of the Levites happens between the ages of 25-50, and after the age of 50 the elders may “assist their brothers”. Often leaders in non-profit orgs are doing the hard labor long after they are 50, long after they are 60 or even 70. This often creates a situation of conflict between the older and younger generations – a rolling of the eyes over elder actions (or often inaction combined with excessive speech), and a frustration from the elders that those younger are not following out their orders in the manner which they would like.

The thesis presented by Howe in this book has added to these thoughts as it basically presents a premise that the GI Generation (Hero Gen) was so civic-minded leading through the last crisis that they built civic orgs together with the Silent Gen (Artist Gen), then when the awakening of the 60s and 70s happened, the Boomer generation (Prophet Gen) was so concerned with the reordering and revolution of many of these orgs that as we come into a season of unraveling into the next crisis, the Nomad Gen Xers don’t care so much for civic responsibility or the maintenance of what has come before and as a result the leadership has stuck with the Boomers. 

I think I would like to propose, at least to the Christian audience that there is a rethinking in these orgs of what honoring elder leaders looks like practically while conversely what empowering younger leaders looks like – which is not covered in the Howe Premise (as it is simply a sociological analysis). But in so doing I do believe that leadership might look more biblical in nature.